I'm not going to pretend I followed all of the formulae, and I read the thread pretty quickly: the question I was hoping to see an answer to involves a DoW I received over the weekend. (I knew it was coming too, but could I have delayed it further.)
Stalin switched from our mutual religon back to his religon, taking us from "Pleased" to "Cautious." I was researching Rocketry and did not want to spend a turn in anarchy following him over until I was done (neither religon was founded by me, and I had the same # of cities with each). I got Rocketry, and instead of switching over to Stalin's religon immediately, I founded Aluminum Co. and ended my turn.
Stalin DoW's me.
From what I read above, this could have been a triggering event, or it could simply have been that the timer popped on his war plan. He had no aluminum; in fact, I think I was the only one who had it (who was on speaking terms with him anyway, I hadn't checked the other continent where his blood enemies reside).
So, my question is: did something happen that triggered the DoW and if so, what is the most likely reason? Was it:
a) me getting Rocketry
b) me founding Aluminum Co
c) timer popped on his war plan
d) me getting a) and b) above affected the calculation on his decision to go to war in a way that flipped it from the turn before
e) purely chance
Any thoughts on this? If I had taken the chance of switching religons to Stalin's before founding Aluminum Co., could I have avoided his DoW on that turn?
Thanks